Friday, February 12, 2010

Iowa 2012 - No Vacancy

Get ready for the broadest slate of Presidential candidates we may ever see in our lives. There will be no room at the inns of Iowa and New Hampshire and given their need to create separation from the pretenders to the throne, serious candidates will have to campaign hard in South Carolina, Ohio and maybe even primary states further down the calendar and way out west.

I'm not Karl Rover or Dick Morris but I have been watching developments particularly over the last few months and I've been reading, not just the news but reading about the elections in 1980 and 1994. Trends and similarities abound.

But the reason I predict that the election in 2012 will be preceded by more entrants into the race then ever before is because there will be a rather confident perception by any and every candidate that they can do better than Obama. Sadly we will have to endure yet another 1000+ days of misery before one of them will get to prove their theory. And they are all right in their assumption, at least in varying degrees. If they govern less intrusively, if they choose to put the Federal government in reverse gear and back out of private enterprise and our private lives, by comparison the results will be better than what we've witnessed under Obama's agendas.

And this is why you will need a scorecard to keep all the players straight. This is why you will have to start your own personal research early to help narrow your field. Do not rely on the liberal media to pick the best Republican candidate for you or we may end up with another McCain or worse a Bob Dole vs. Clinton with a similar outcome.

Most of the candidates are going to rely on that same grass roots activism and direct campaign contributions that elected Scott Brown to the Senate last month. Contribution dollars will be diluted in such a vast field.

In addition to all the usual suspects like Romney and Huckabee and yes, Sarah Palin; the ones polls are already tracking, you will also see Gingrich and likely see Rick Santorum, maybe Tim Pawlenty. Fred Thompson may come out more early and often this time around. You will see names more regionally recognized. For instance the current edition of Texas Monthly is advancing the notion that our current governor, Rick Perry is campaigning already, not to keep his seat as governor this year but to brand himself as a conservative outsider to beltway politics and a champion of the people, a champion of smaller, less intrusive Federal governance on the same template of Texas government. Maybe Mitch Daniels from Indiana will be able to leverage his experience at the OMB and make a bid as a wonk-ish but popular state Governor.

I would expect to see a couple of names that have become nationally recognized just this last year. Guys like Scott Brown and perhaps (I hope I am not prematurely predicting his victory) Marco Rubio will look to capatilze on their successes at energizing a grass roots movement and becoming dragon-slayers of sorts against Liberal Democrats and RINOs alike.

In Iowa and New Hampshire they will be running out of office space and rent-by-the-month hotel rooms and if you are daring enough to start a small business under the current socialist, statist regime then a good bet would be to start a printing shop in one of these states to help these numerous campaigns turn out all of the bumper stickers and yard signs they will undoubtedly need. And if you are really smart you won't only stock up on red ink. You will be smart to be the only print shop in town with a fresh supply of blue ink too. After all, a Democrat by the name of Hillary Clinton will probably be there campaigning as well.

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